Russia has officially announced a naval blockade on Ukraine, to start 00.00 20/07/23.

“In connection with the cessation of the functioning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the сlosing of the maritime humanitarian corridor, from 00.00 Moscow time on 20 July 2023, all vessels sailing in the waters of the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be regarded as potential carriers of military cargo,” reads a message the MoD issued on the social messaging platform Telegram. “Accordingly, the countries of such vessels will be considered to be involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kyiv regime.”

In my view this is a desperate escalation from Russia and only serves to project their weakness. Despite what the media says, I don’t think this is a retaliation to the latest damage to the Kerch Bridge as the strike was conducted between both the VKS and Navy and would have taken more time to plan such an operation. This was pre-planned, they were never going to re-negotiate the BSGI.

Given that Türkiye has supported Black Sea shipping previously by escorting ships through the passage, thisay be the outcome. And against that Russia can do nothing without putting themselves at risk of international intervention, which I’m sure we all agree will not end well for them. But such an act may require UN Charter to ensure actual international support and backing.

The other option would be for Türkiye to simply close the Strait, which they are perfectly well within their rights to do. Effectively blockading the blockade. The only nations that will be significantly affected are those that are Russian or Russian aligned. Everyone else will be able to reroute via land routes (granted at extra expense and time).

What will this mean for the world? Prices increasing yet more for our food items.

Rather short sightedly, China and other BRICS nations are a significant consumer of Ukrainian grain, so I assume that they won’t be too pleased at this.

In a completely unrelated note Putin has decided not to show up to the BRICS summit where China and those aforementioned other nations are going to be present.

  • socsa@lemmy.ml
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    1 year ago

    And way too many fucking people here will seriously bend over backwards to defend the idea that a Russian captain pulling a Russian trigger on a Russian weapon to sink a Nigerian-flagged cargo ship on its way to get food from Ukraine is NATO’s fault.

  • style99@kbin.social
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    1 year ago

    Doesn’t this concentration of forces in the Black Sea leave Siberia temptingly undefended?

    • lemmyshmemmy@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      This whole thing leaves most of Russia undefended. That’s why the Freedom of Russia, Russian Volunteer Corps, and Wagner groups were able to easily get into some of the most developed and populated parts of Russia.

      Some of the more obvious proof that the Kremlin’s claim that this barbaric invasion is “self-defense”.

    • vegai@suppo.fi
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      1 year ago

      In some way it’s too bad the West is only seeking peace and civility. That stance is too easy to exploit by barbarians.

    • bluGill@kbin.social
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      1 year ago

      Tempting to who? Realistically in modern days you lose more than you gain by going to war. You are much better off focusing on your own internal development, and peaceful development of other countries.

      • Fisting for Freedom@sh.itjust.works
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        1 year ago

        Japan. They were still negotiating a peace treaty with Russia from WWII just before the invasion last year, and they want the Kuril Islands back.

        (This is largely a joke, but I still hold out hope)

  • Jaysyn@kbin.social
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    1 year ago

    Sounds like it’s time for the USA to start supplying Ukraine with ATACMS & Tomahawks to take Ruzzia’s Black Sea fleet of the map.

  • bradorsomething@ttrpg.network
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    1 year ago

    All eyes will be on Turkey with this move. They can escort ships in/out of the corridor they support with a massive article 5 flag waving.

    • fluke@lemmy.worldOP
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      1 year ago

      An angle that I didn’t consider at the time of my post was China.

      They could use this as an opportunity to look good on the world stage by sending some ships over to escort the shipments.

      Russia wouldn’t dare attack them, China looks good and protects their self interests and their navy get some invaluable and greatly needed experience on long distance missions.

      • bradorsomething@ttrpg.network
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        1 year ago

        Turkey has enacted a treaty which forbids additional warships in the region unless they are returning to their home port. China also is very limited in their blue water navy - they’re working on this, though, and should have deep water ports and logistics in Africa over time.