As much as there is plenty of new people joining the threadiverse, the real wave starts today, with thousands of subreddits going dark.
Existing Lemmy/Kbin instances get hammered with new user registrations and deploy different coping strategies. Some plead, some close registrations. New instances spring up.
Soon, mainstream media will discover Lemmy exists. They will probably miss Kbin entirely, and most will also be very confused about the federated nature of Lemmy. Some might be able to remember Fediverse exists.
When Kbin finally shows up on their radar, they will find it difficult to explain how it fits into the narrative they already spun. My money is on someone calling it a “fork” of Lemmy. 🤣
Eventually, as more instances start turning off registrations, and as some buckle under the load temporarily, the narrative becomes “this is why Lemmy will fail.” Threadiverse will get treated like a VC-funded walled garden. Media will be flabberghasted at how “poorly” Lemmy and Kbin were able to “capture” the people wanting to migrate off of Reddit. They will complain endlessly about how hard it is to choose an instance, “confusing interface”, and ask “thoughtful” questions on “how will they monetize”.
Eventually, the wave subsides. Maybe Reddit reverses their silly ideas, maybe people get tired. There is a drop in active user accounts on the Threadiverse, compared to the peak of the wave, which is then taken as “proof positive” that Lemmy and Kbin could never “succeed”.
What they will ignore, of course, is that by then Threadiverse is several times bigger and more active than before all the Reddit insanity. Communities stay active, people stay active, and slowly Threadiverse grows, as (just like the broader Fediverse) it is not a VC-funded startup that needs a hokey-stick growth.
It’s a long-term project of making community-run platforms work. And that takes time, and effort, and love.
I’m new to all of this, can you explain the difference between Lemmy and Kbin? And why would Kbin get missed over initially?
These are just two different software projects that a Threadiverse instance can use. They federate with one another, so it doesn’t matter all that much if you have an account on a Kbin instance, or a Lemmy instance. The differences are in the interface, some functionality, and the tech stack used (Lemmy is written in Rust; Kbin in PHP).
There are 100+ instances of Lemmy, and ~10 instances of Kbin. Kbin is a much younger project (hence it might get missed), and it’s main instance, kbin.social seems to be experiencing more issues with the wave of new registrations. If you want to try Kbin, https://fedia.io/ might be a good instance to check out.
Sorry if this is a dumb question, but is the fediverse and the threadiverse the same thing different names?
I feel like I’m finally wrapping my head around a lot of this stuff, but I’m still learning all the terms.
The Fediverse is everything that is connected via ActivityPub. You have Lemmy and Kbin, but you also have Mastodon serving as a Twitter analogue, PeerTube as a YouTube analogue, Pixelfed as an Instagram analogue, etcetera, all of which are part of the Fediverse umbrella.
The Threadiverse is just the “forum” side of the Fediverse, the Reddit-alikes. At this point that means just Lemmy and Kbin, but there’s no reason there couldn’t be more alternatives in the future.