• tal@lemmy.today
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    5 months ago

    I don’t expect that Trump being in office will substantially change US policy on Ukraine. This is not a major election factor. I think that what you’re seeing is politicking, and that the major driver of US policy on Ukraine is the bureaucracy, not political leadership. That doesn’t change from administration to administration.

    • Che Banana@beehaw.org
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      5 months ago

      Trump is Putins piss boy (literally). He held up aid once, he will do it again with impunity this time. It all depends on how much pull the US military contracts have, which is a lot.

      • tal@lemmy.today
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        5 months ago

        No. Trump was not largely the factor involved in aid being held up – that was the Freedom Caucus, which was aiming to hold it (and a number of other things, including the budget earlier) hostage to get domestic policy gains that they wanted, given that the Republicans had a very narrow margin in the House and their support was required for a deal.

        The Freedom Caucus didn’t actually care much about the fundamental issue of Ukraine aid, but they wanted to force spending reductions – they took the position that we could aid Ukraine, but if so it had to come from cutting government spending, reducing regular spending. It couldn’t be additional spending.

        Trump’s faction has not been especially friendly with the Freedom Caucus, and supported the guy who just defeated its leader, Bob Good.

        https://news.yahoo.com/news/republican-survive-trumps-wrath-bob-221830141.html

        “I was concerned about the legal persecution, the abuse of power towards our president and how that would hurt him, potentially, in a general election,” Good told constituents in a town hall meeting. In another clip, recorded without Good’s awareness, he explained that DeSantis had a better record than Trump on guns (“Trump did red flag laws when he was president”) and abortion (“Trump is saying we’re gonna need to back off”).

        McGuire’s allies stapled those quotes to Good’s forehead. It doesn’t matter if a critique of Trump is right; what matters is that the congressman was disloyal. “Bob Good won’t be electable when we get done with him,” Trump campaign strategist Chris LaCivita said in January. The day after the Manhattan conviction, Trump’s campaign issued a cease-and-desist order to stop Good from displaying lawn signs that link the men together.

        https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-endorses-primary-challenger-gop-rep-bob-good-virginia-rcna154285

        Trump takes revenge on Rep. Bob Good after he endorsed Ron DeSantis

        Former President Donald Trump endorsed the primary challenger taking on House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good, R-Va., saying the congressman “turned his back on our incredible movement.”

        Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social on Tuesday morning that he is endorsing state Sen. John McGuire, who is challenging Good in a June 18 primary. Trump made a veiled reference to Good’s being one of the few members of Congress who endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the presidential primary, writing that Good “was constantly attacking and fighting me until recently.”

        Good endorsed Trump back in January, but the former president wrote that it was “too late.”

        https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4729084-bob-good-donald-trump-virginia-oklahoma-georgia-tom-cole/mlite/

        Trump’s bid for revenge ends in a nail-biter

        Good, the chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, was seen by many as a dead man walking heading into his primary against Virginia state Sen. John McGuire on Tuesday night, especially because Good had run afoul of Trump.

        https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4727667-bob-good-virginia-donald-trump-kevin-mccarthy-john-mcguire-freedom-caucus/

        Bob Good ousted by Trump-backed rival in Virginia nail-biter

        Good made a name for himself as a rabble-rouser within the House GOP caucus, bucking his own party at pivotal moments. Among the moves that rankled some in his party were his vote to oust former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) from his Speakership; voting against the debt ceiling deal reached between President Biden and McCarthy last year; and voting down a foreign aid package that included aid to Ukraine and Israel.

        You can find some people who are friendly with Trump who have opposed Ukraine aid. Vance is one possible running mate pick for Trump, and he has, in the past, pretty consistently advocated for not getting involved in Europe and Russia, and rather focusing on opposing China. On the other hand, Burgum, another possible running mate pick, has been a hawk on Russia. So depending upon how things play out you could wind up with people who do have a voice in advising Trump, will have access to him, and have taken policy positions against support for Ukraine. But I don’t anticipate Trump himself to be much of a factor on Ukraine, and I think that it’ll be recommendations from the Department of State and the like that will be the most influential in a potential second Trump administration.

        US foreign policy usually isn’t a major factor in elections, and generally doesn’t swing back and forth around elections.