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Cake day: June 23rd, 2023

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  • This is true, China doesn’t care. I’m actually confused about the narrative around China wanting to take TSMC. Even the most cursory glace at the situation should make it obvious this isn’t one of China’s goals. This is because these EUV machines don’t work on magic. They work on knowledge and spare parts. Even in the unlikely scenario that China somehow invades and these machines aren’t destroyed by either China or the retreating Taiwanese, they aren’t going to be able to operate them and more importantly get spare parts to keep them running. They’d at best be used to disassemble and review.

    All of this ignores the fact that China is already at 5nm using their own equipment anyway. For the extra 2nm of difference between TSMC’s 3nm to SMIC’s 5nm isn’t large enough to rationalize anything close to what they’re talking about. It’d be cheaper to just keep subsidizing the Chinese industry rather than invading.

    All of this is to say, that China may or may not invade, but TSMC isn’t on the list of reasons. If anything, it’s on the opposite end. China has a LOT of motivation to bomb TSMC to prevent the west from getting chips as if TSMC is gone, then suddenly Chinese 5nm are pretty much the most advanced chips in the world (besides Samsung). Thus, the real conclusion is we need to invest in Samsung, which surprisingly isn’t happening for whatever reason is beyond me.


  • This is just it getting doled out. You agree to 60 Billion and then you slowly release it as they are doing now. It would be impossible to actually just ship 60 billion worth of weapons, there are logistical issues as well as supply issues. The 60 billion is also partially going to making the missiles and weapons that Ukraine will need in the future.

    On the other hand, it would be super cool if humanity figured out teleportation and we could just beam 60 billion dollars worth of goods, but until then, this is what you should expect.




  • No, I’m only stating their formal argument to the best of my ability to explain it and ignoring speculation. Now, if I WERE to speculate, I’d say what you’re saying is probably closer to the truth. For Russia at least I’m almost 100% certain that’s the reason. China is very different. I’d argue that China’s stance has nothing to do with Russia, USA or Taiwan. There’s this weird myopia when it comes to China and their interests. China’s interests span far greater than those three little pieces of land.

    No, for China I’d argue we’d first need to ask who is their audience for this. That answer is the other nations in the middle east. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, etc… China has been trying to formulate a narrative that they are friends to Muslims regardless of the accusations of what they are doing in XinJiang. So, it’s almost certain China’s stance comes from conversations with those nations. So technically they are telling the truth in the sense that their saying what others are telling them. Reality is it’s just to win favor over the oil producing nations so they have stable supplies of energy.

    *Edit. Essentially what I think China is saying to the middle eastern world is you have a veto with me, the same way India has with Russia.


  • So I want to be upfront and say I don’t really agree with their argument, but I do understand it. What Russia and China are saying is by tying the ceasefire to the release of hostages is unfair to the Palestinian side. This is because they lose all leverage and then would be easy targets for Israel who doesn’t seem to mind bombing Palestinian civilians.

    My issue is that technically the only reason their bombing is because of the hostages and perhaps if they release the hostages peace talks can begin. The opposite of that argument is it will allow Israel to be even more aggressive after the temporary cease fire is ended.

    I don’t know, but that’s the argument.



  • What’s crazy to me is Putin had such an opportune chance to control the narrative and try to pull the far right to his side. He could have done this by speaking to anti-LGBTQ stuff or talk about traditional families. But instead he spent his time talking about a perverse Russian history that some how blames Poland for Hitler’s aggression.

    Putin had a chance to control the narrative, but instead ranted on like a crazy old man. So win for the west, but what a strange story.


  • While that’s true, I would argue the total human cost is similar. Your estimates do not count stolen and killed Ukrainian civilians. Adding those would make the numbers far closer, especially since no Russian civilians are caught in this conflict so far.

    Not saying any of this is OK. Just unfortunately the numbers are very similar. War is miserable.

    *And yes, the fact that Ukraine is suffering more losses due to the fact that it’s Russia invading absolutely makes Russia the bad guy here. I’m just pointing out that the losses are unfortunately very close.



  • Yes, but they are applying it equally. They are banning all mentions of sex, not just queer sex. They are censoring anything that shows too much skin, not just queer dressing. This is why I pointed out them censoring a video game made for kids. Basically they said a leotard was too revealing.

    The problem isn’t the enforcement. The problem is the reporting. As society there reports against the LGBTQ more than other ones. Again, that’s not the government doing anything unequal or targeting. Which is why I said it’s not exactly an LGBTQ issue. It becomes one because of the older conservatives.





  • Yes I did. Here’s a few quotes from that article.

    While China has a law against domestic violence, it fails to adequately protect victims, especially LGBTQ+ people, say advocates, with crimes often dismissed as family affairs

    And

    Li Tingting (left) and Teresa at their wedding reception in Beijing, China, July 2015. Li, 25, a prominent rights activist announced their marriage in an effort to push for LGBTQ rights in China

    As well as it gives several examples of abusive families who manipulate the law to attack those who help their children. Like the trans woman who tried to protect the run away trans woman.

    I said it’s not good. But it’s not the government pushing this. It straight says so in the article in the quotes I’m posting.


  • Not that I am OK with how China is dealing with these things, but this is not exactly an LGBTQ+ issue. As per the article, the reasons for the arrests are kidnapping, not any law against being gay. In fact, China has essentially civil unions for gay people who want to be in a recognized relationship.

    Ironically, in this case, it’s not a government problem but a societal one. The older generation is very conservative. They set the tone for a lot of censorship. So while your free to be gay or whatever, you can’t talk about it or make media about it. This is to not offend the older generation.

    The older generation can inflict immense damage on their children as the article points out. If you disobey your elders like your parents, the police will tend to favor the elders as we see in this article.

    As a cultural issue, this has kind of been the case since Confucius times. China is kind of famous for over controlling and overbearing parents. And in this case, the government backs them even if the official policy is to let them be. For example in 2017 China ruled that gay conversion camps illegal. Yet the problem still persists in 2019.

    Of course as per usual, when the government doesn’t know what to do, it tries to censor everything and hopes it goes away on its own.

    Like I said, not OK with it, but we should all be aware what it is and be aware of biased reporting from the news.


  • Well, Chinese cities will seem western and modern to you as well. I have family in China also. The media twists everything that’s happening and well, I’m sick of it. I guess in some ways this is just me acting out.

    My biggest issue is whenever USA has beef with China for God knows what, Taiwan gets dragged into whatever is going on. Leave us alone, that’s all I want. In this case it’s semiconductors.

    The first Taiwan strait crisis was because USA wanted to beat up on China for the Korean war. Second crisis was a continuation of the first one.

    The third Taiwan strait crisis was similar to Nancy Pelosi’s visit.

    So from my personal point of view, it’s constantly the US stirring up trouble. Not everyone in Taiwan shares my views on this stuff. I’m at this point only talking what I believe.

    But we all tend to agree to just keep our freedoms and the status quo.

    *Edit I should add I dislike both China and the US and think they’re bullies. They’re bullies who bully each other and uses Taiwan as a flashpoint.


  • That is correct. Taiwanese people are generally ok with the situation and have what we want so don’t stir the pot. Also, I realize in that post I wrote pro-China. That’s incorrect, both the TPP and KMT are pro-negotiation with China which I am too and I dislike the DPP who wants to disengage. However, technically all parties are against independence.

    To add my own personal opinion, I want people to stop talking about war and conflict with China because I think it’s hurting Taiwanese businesses. I believe if we just let things lay and don’t stoke the flames, Taiwan would prosper more.

    *Edit: To expand upon my anger at people constantly saying China is going to war with Taiwan, who would invest in a nation that is going to war? It creates a situation where people think twice about investments. Better to keep our status quo and to stop talking about war entirely. Taiwan is free, this election clearly shows what we do and want is up to us. Stoking the flames of war only causes people to want to visit less and invest less. Taiwan is a beautiful place that is wonderful to visit. But if you think missiles are going to be lodged at Taiwan, you’re less likely to be a tourist. This is why I’m on the side of 60% of Taiwanese and with the TPP and KMT, TPP more than KMT but as a third party they get less votes. OK I’m rambling but I think you get it.