Just a regular Joe.

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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 7th, 2023

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  • In Tiananmen’s shadow, two leaders met, A show of strength, yet a tale of debt. Putin’s cap in hand, Xi’s gaze afar, The echoes of Ukraine, a haunting scar.

    The Red Army’s songs played, children cheered, But in Xi’s eyes, the future’s not cleared. A hug for the cameras, words held at bay, Xi knows the game, it’s a cautious play.

    Russia’s strength, now frail and thin, Exposed by war, the cracks begin. China stands tall, the senior hand, Guiding the course, on shifting sand.

    Economies entwined, yet paths diverge, Xi’s balance act on the world stage surge. A pariah’s plea, a friend’s restraint, In whispers, their true sentiments faint.

    For China’s gain, Russia’s plight, An alliance of need, not equal might. Xi will nod when the moment is right, In shadows, he maneuvers out of sight.











  • I think you underestimate the desire for russia to avoid a direct war with the west, and overestimate the west’s response (which would be devestatingly tactical, but limited)

    We see how the west and russia go out of their way to avoid direct clashes in Syria, and have painted over the odd incident. This is officially still a SMO.

    The challenge is how to better protect the cities, supplies and infrastructure in the rear without getting directly involved at the front.

    More air defence is the approach that will most likely be taken, but it leaves everything in Ukraine as a target for russian aggression and terror. Every apartment complex, school and hospital is a valid target for russia.

    There would be significant strategic and tactical ambiguity in having western countries regularly entering Ukrainian airspace to patrol and interept. It would be a huge morale boost for Ukrainians, and a blow to the russians.

    It is still unlikely to happen without a significant change like the russian federation’s collapse or perhaps a true stalemate at the front. I don’t see either happening soon, but the ballet is notoriously hard to predict in russia.

    edit: the realistic threat of direct involvement might be enough to achieve similar results, and being unsure whether they are tracking/targeting ukrainian equipment or not would give pause.