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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • Germany was actively trying to get some level of control over middle east oil during the war. Their failure to secure reliable and plentiful oil is a big reason they lost. The campaigns in north Africa were largely about control of Egypt and the Suez canal. Part of the invasion to Soviet lands was also opening a route to the middle east.









  • Everyone should meet someone that worked in the mortgage industry pre 2008. The number of things that were not only allowed, but perfectly legal were absurd.

    • appraisal was basically a bribe for any number you wanted.
    • no document loans were far more available for anyone.
    • mortgages had no real chain of custody after sale.
    • there wasn’t any real way to verify the risk of a mortgage security pre 2008.
    • variable rates didn’t have lifetime caps on rates, and reporting the details of how they functioned weren’t required.



  • Global power doesn’t tend to be a peaceful transition though. If China does make a play to become the dominant force by then, it’s bad news for everyone living right now.

    There are benefits China has that will go away as they transition, which could also cause them to stumble. No longer being considered a developing nation, any poverty will be 100% on them to fix, international agreements will expect them to contribute instead of receiving, emissions will be more heavily scrutinized. Other countries will not be a tolerant about the rampant IP theft and extreme protectionism of their domestic markets.