The arrest of the co-founder of the powerful criminal organization in the US opens up several possible scenarios: wars of succession, changes in the criminal structure, and confrontation with the Jalisco New Generation Cartel

A pre-arranged surrender to the authorities, a deception, or kidnapping at the hands of his former associates. These are the three main hypotheses that have gained traction following the fall of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, one of the world’s most feared and powerful drug traffickers.

Certainties about his mysterious arrest have faded in recent days and questions are also emerging about the consequences of his detention and its implications for the Sinaloa Cartel’s leadership.

“We all know that these are groups that have been involved in illicit activities for years — they are the most famous in the country, so to speak — and yet even though this is a delicate matter there has been no confrontation between them,” said Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador last Friday.

A dispute over succession, restructuring, and splits in the hierarchy of the criminal organization — as well the reaction of rivals such as the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) — remain a latent possibility and have placed the population of the northwest of the country, where those loyal to El Mayo and Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán have their strongholds, on alert.