What’s the Y axis for the middle graph? Also only having 3 data points in such a brief window doesn’t really say much. Finally the grouping metric of “won majority of presidential elections from 2000 to 2020” isn’t clear and isn’t necessarily reflexive of policy. A more appropriate metric might be the party of the governor or the majority parties of their chambers.
I agree with what you’re saying though—3 points does not make a compelling statement. I also agree that a better metric probably exists than what was posted. I’d add on and would like to know what the error bands represent—standard error, confidence intervals, or something else?
Number of kids per what? If it’s just number of kids total that is such an astonishingly low number and a meaningless distinction between governance. Assuming a total average of 12 victims per state and US child population of 73.4 million that amounts to 0.0000082% being abused.
That’s the percentage of kids who’ve reported some kind of sexual violence.
Also only having 3 data points in such a brief window doesn’t really say much.
I disagree because it’s not really just about these YRBS surveys, it’s the whole pattern. When we consider how conservatives are the only ones voting in favor of child marriage, and how pundits and randos on the internet will defend teen pregnancy, even if it was just one survey that showed a difference between red and blue states that would just be confirmation of a pattern that’s already pretty obvious, and we should seriously ask why their ideology leads to this kind of stuff, and how to remedy it. Even if it’s just a 2% point increase, this means that hundreds of thousands of children could be saved from abuse if conservatism was less prevalent.
Finally the grouping metric of “won majority of presidential elections from 2000 to 2020” isn’t clear and isn’t necessarily reflexive of policy. A more appropriate metric might be the party of the governor or the majority parties of their chambers.
There’s really no definitive metric for “red” vs. “blue” states, so while presidential election results will obviously reflect the politics of the people in that state, I do agree that it’s not a thorough measure - but this same pattern holds even when using other measures of political affiliation.
I say this because I have some additional context here, as these graphs are part of an article I’m writing about the “pedocon” theory, and I can tell you that this same pattern shows up regardless of how we measure politics or CSA. Whether it’s polling on how many people identify as Republicans vs. Democrats, or liberals vs. conservatives, or left-wing vs. right-wing, this correlation is still there. Looking at governor or chambers specifically could be an interesting addition, but I fully expect the same pattern to hold.
I would have expected the reported sexual abuse cases to be lower in conservative states. You know, because victims would feel more shame and danger so fewer of them would come forward and fewer would file police reports? Is the first graph measuring estimated abuse or reported abuse?
First graph is all reported child sexual abuse cases that were substantiated. You can see the full tables in the ACF website, and in 2021 specifically there were 59,328 CSA cases in the U.S. that were substantiated.
The percentage of kids who’ve officially reported sexual abuse actually seems to be decreasing considering not only the decrease you see in the graph (and it decreased further in 2022 to 59,044 cases), but also because in the Youth Risk Behavior Survey the percentage of teens who said they’ve experienced some kind of sexual violence increased from 9.7% in 2017 to 11% in 2021, and for rape specifically it went from 7.4% to 8.5%.
Ages ago I posted a meme to r/PoliticalCompassMemes about how Lauren Boebert was happy to become a grandma at 36 when her 17 year old son had a kid, which is obviously very weird and unhealthy. Like clockwork, a lot of ‘AuthRight’ flairs came to the comments to defend teen pregnancy. You can see the post here if you really want to have a look at the hellhole that is PCM: https://redd.it/11n2z00
And another important reminder:
What’s the Y axis for the middle graph? Also only having 3 data points in such a brief window doesn’t really say much. Finally the grouping metric of “won majority of presidential elections from 2000 to 2020” isn’t clear and isn’t necessarily reflexive of policy. A more appropriate metric might be the party of the governor or the majority parties of their chambers.
I think the y-axis shows number of kids.
I agree with what you’re saying though—3 points does not make a compelling statement. I also agree that a better metric probably exists than what was posted. I’d add on and would like to know what the error bands represent—standard error, confidence intervals, or something else?
Number of kids per what? If it’s just number of kids total that is such an astonishingly low number and a meaningless distinction between governance. Assuming a total average of 12 victims per state and US child population of 73.4 million that amounts to 0.0000082% being abused.
Given the other graphs, you can probably assume per 100,000, but it would be nice if they were consistent.
That’s the percentage of kids who’ve reported some kind of sexual violence.
I disagree because it’s not really just about these YRBS surveys, it’s the whole pattern. When we consider how conservatives are the only ones voting in favor of child marriage, and how pundits and randos on the internet will defend teen pregnancy, even if it was just one survey that showed a difference between red and blue states that would just be confirmation of a pattern that’s already pretty obvious, and we should seriously ask why their ideology leads to this kind of stuff, and how to remedy it. Even if it’s just a 2% point increase, this means that hundreds of thousands of children could be saved from abuse if conservatism was less prevalent.
There’s really no definitive metric for “red” vs. “blue” states, so while presidential election results will obviously reflect the politics of the people in that state, I do agree that it’s not a thorough measure - but this same pattern holds even when using other measures of political affiliation.
I say this because I have some additional context here, as these graphs are part of an article I’m writing about the “pedocon” theory, and I can tell you that this same pattern shows up regardless of how we measure politics or CSA. Whether it’s polling on how many people identify as Republicans vs. Democrats, or liberals vs. conservatives, or left-wing vs. right-wing, this correlation is still there. Looking at governor or chambers specifically could be an interesting addition, but I fully expect the same pattern to hold.
I would have expected the reported sexual abuse cases to be lower in conservative states. You know, because victims would feel more shame and danger so fewer of them would come forward and fewer would file police reports? Is the first graph measuring estimated abuse or reported abuse?
First graph is all reported child sexual abuse cases that were substantiated. You can see the full tables in the ACF website, and in 2021 specifically there were 59,328 CSA cases in the U.S. that were substantiated.
The percentage of kids who’ve officially reported sexual abuse actually seems to be decreasing considering not only the decrease you see in the graph (and it decreased further in 2022 to 59,044 cases), but also because in the Youth Risk Behavior Survey the percentage of teens who said they’ve experienced some kind of sexual violence increased from 9.7% in 2017 to 11% in 2021, and for rape specifically it went from 7.4% to 8.5%.
Well that’s an awful trend.
For republican’s, the last one is a feature, not a bug.
Ages ago I posted a meme to r/PoliticalCompassMemes about how Lauren Boebert was happy to become a grandma at 36 when her 17 year old son had a kid, which is obviously very weird and unhealthy. Like clockwork, a lot of ‘AuthRight’ flairs came to the comments to defend teen pregnancy. You can see the post here if you really want to have a look at the hellhole that is PCM: https://redd.it/11n2z00
So yeah, it pretty much is a feature for them.
This is the second time I’ve seen a link to the other site here. Boy does it remind what a hellhole it was.