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Cake day: July 22nd, 2023

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  • Moldova has had a Russian backed separatist region called Transnistria since 1990. Moldova has had a hard time, they do not have huge resources they can use, and their military is not well- equipped or funded.

    During the Soviet era the country was producing huge amounts of agricultural products. After dissolution, Moldova still relied heavily on export to Russia. It was mostly in their best interest to keep their heads down and carry on, as they do not have the means to fight a serious conflict.

    They’ve also had massive brain drain. Large volumes of young people have been leaving the country for decades. Many young people with Romanian heritage applied to become Romanian-EU citizens when Romania joined the EU.

    They have slowly been pivoting towards a pro-EU policy. Whenever they make an obvious plan to head more towards becoming European, Russia will often apply some kind of sanctions. It’s been a common tactic over the last few decades for shipments of wine, cognac or other Moldovan products to be seized and ‘destroyed’ by Russian customs officials in retaliation for Pro-EU policy shifts by Moldova.

    When the Preisdent of Belarus, Lukashenko, leaked Russia’s Ukrainian invasion plans, Moldova was shown as being a point of troop movement. So Russias invasion plan definitely originally included Moldovan territory as well.
















  • This war was lost over a year ago. None of their aims were achievable after that point.

    To understand why it continues you have to understand two things:

    Putin will cease to be leader if he ends this.

    Putin believes in luck. The longer this continues the more likely of some random event going in his favour or of the West getting bored and withdrawing their support.

    He’s intentionally dragging out the conflict. The tactics they use are designed to do nothing more than slow down how much territory is lost over time.

    Every so often they attack to achieve a little ‘victory’. This is then twisted into a massive victory on every tv across Russia. This plus huge pay offerings, gives them endless volunteers. Particularly from rural regions where education is lacking.

    Putin does not care how many of his own people he kills. They are nothing to him. The tactic putin is using is based on throwing 10, 20, 100 or whatever number to kill one Ukrainian. That is one less Ukrainian. That is what matters to him.